Gestão & Estratégia

Análise do artigo: “Dubai: A High Rise, Then a Steep Fall” publicado no The Wall Street Journal no último dia 4 de dezembro.
 
É interessante notar a evolução dos ciclos econômicos no capitalismo, parei para notar nos últimos dias como de década em década somos pegos de “surpresa” com uma crise de escala mundial que assola os mercados financeiros e traz consigo impactos consideráveis sobre a economia real.

Da mesma forma é interessante notar como são formadas “bolhas” econômicas que servem de bomba relógio para estas crises decenais que bombardeiam as economias nacionais. Na década de 70 a bolha do petróleo alimentou a subsequente crise. Na década de 80 a bolha de Wall Street alimentou a crise da queda da NYSE em 1987. Na década de 90 a bolha da internet alimentou a crise das empresas de tecnologia. Recentemente a bolha imobiliária somada a desregulamentação dos derivativos gerou a atual crise em que estamos inseridos.

O artigo recentemente publicado no The Wall Street Journal “Dubai: A High Rise, Then a Steep Fall” mostra um pouco de outra bolha que estava se formando aos olhos do mundo e que estourou na última semana, a bolha de Dubai. Tenho sentido um pouco de falta de informação disponível sobre o assunto então fiz questão de publicá-lo para contribuir um pouco mais com a discussão do tema, boa leitura a todos:

“As financial crisis roiled much of the world in October 2008, the head of Dubai’s biggest state-owned developer unveiled his latest megaproject: a $38 billion development that would include a tower nearly two-thirds of a mile tall.

Since then, residential real-estate prices in Dubai have slumped by almost 50%. Developers have slashed jobs and scrapped projects. Groundbreaking on the tower was long ago put on hold. The yearlong retrenchment culminated in last week’s surprise announcement that Dubai would seek to restructure $26 billion of debts owed by Dubai World, the holding company for many of the government’s port, infrastructure and real-estate businesses.

Behind this jolt was one of the world’s most concentrated property bubbles. Some $430 billion worth of construction projects have been scrapped across the United Arab Emirates, a desert country with a population of just 4.5 million and an area smaller than South Carolina. The majority were slated for the emirate of Dubai, according to estimates by the Middle East Economic Digest, a regional projects tracker.

The boom was fueled by easy credit, a poorly regulated market overrun by speculators, and cheerleading from Dubai officials — including the hereditary ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

His vision for the city — a tolerant, modern metropolis open to the world, its many faiths and some of its excesses — has long rankled conservative Arab neighbors, including some officials in Abu Dhabi, the buttoned-down capital of the U.A.E. But for others, Dubai became a symbol of what a modern Arab state might achieve if it embraced the West and its financial system. President Barack Obama, in a June speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, singled out Dubai as a place where economic development worked

International securities markets recovered their poise after a scare, but the effects aren’t just financial. The debt announcement appeared to open a fresh rift between Dubai and U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi. Federal officials there were livid at being left in the dark by Dubai’s decision to seek a debt standstill, say people familiar with the situation. The rift has the potential to unsettle an important U.S. ally in the Persian Gulf, because Dubai, as a re-export hub and offshore financial center for Iranian businesses, is seen as key to U.S. efforts to isolate Iran.

Dubai and Abu Dhabi officials have underscored unity in recent days. But while the U.A.E. federal government orchestrated a $10 billion bailout earlier this year for Dubai companies, it hasn’t stepped in to offer assistance to Dubai World.”

Fonte: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125988807548075805.html?mod=rss_Today’s_Most_Popular

Copyright: The Wall Street Journal